How to read the numbers of the budget watchdog for the economy Business

In addition to the debt and spending figures, the OBR will also release its growth and unemployment forecasts. Given the unprecedented uncertainty, the OBR outlined three different paths for the economy in its fiscal sustainability report in July: an upside, a central and a downside scenario.

With a second lockdown sending the recovery back in reverse and the Chancellor extending the leave schedule to next year, the OBR is likely to revise those numbers.

In July, its central scenario predicted that unemployment would peak at 12% while GDP would collapse by 12.4% in 2020. This would be followed by a rapid recovery of the economy, with growth reaching 8.7% in 2021 and unemployment falling to 5.3% in 2024. However, in this result, GDP was still 3% lower in 2025 than it was in its March forecast.

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