For Bruno Drweski, specialist in the Slavic world, the regime of Alexander Lukashenko is not approaching its end for the time being. The Belarusian president knows that the people do not want political instability like life in neighboring Ukraine.
In power since 1994, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko faces a strong mobilization of the opposition ahead of the presidential election. Tens of thousands of supporters of the main opposition candidate took part, Thursday, July 30, in a large rally in Minsk, the capital. Not enough to question its position, however, estimates on Franceinfo Friday July 31, Bruno Drweski, lecturer at the National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations (Inalco).
“He has always had opposition forces but this time he is mainly facing an opposition that can be described as pro-Russian, Bruno Drweski analysis. Today it is Moscow which is not very happy with the power which reigns in Minsk whereas before it was rather the Westerners. “
On Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the main opposition candidate, the mid-European expert believes she “comes out of the hat a bit”. “It represents an emergence of something that was not planned. However, I think the government is in control and that we should not have too many surprises during the elections.”
The population is always very hesitant about supporting the opposition when it is supported by foreigners, it makes people fear the privatization of companies for the benefit of Russian oligarchs, for example.to franceinfo
For Bruno Drweski, the regime of Alexander Lukashenko is not, for the time being, nearing its end. “Lukashenko still has some assets, its main asset is the fact that in the south you have Ukraine which is in a situation of maximum tension, which does not make Belarusians dream much, says the teacher.
“Besides, the Russian social model is not very attractive. Indeed the regime is a little tired but in Belarus we have a society which is very cautious. We hardly see a kind of color revolution in Minsk in the style that we met in Kiev. It will be more in the medium term than in the immediate future. “